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Fedesarrollo

Coyuntura Social

Could Political Violence Affect Infant Mortality? The Colombian Case

Urdinola, Piedad

Diciembre de 2004

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Resumen

"Colombia ha experimentado por mas de 60 años un conflicto interno que se ha intensificado durante la última década. El vivir un conflicto tan largo e intenso ha tenido varios efectos sobre variables demográficas, que no sólo se limitan al incremento en la mortalidad adulta. Este documento busca probar si la violencia política podría tener efectos indirectos como el incremento en la mortalidad infantil, utilizando un modelo de diferencias en diferencias y haciendo particular énfasis en la última década. Para tal fin, se utiliza información de violencia para el período 1990 al 2000, que controlando por otras variables permite mostrar que existen efectos negativos de la violencia sobre la mortalidad infantil a nivel municipal en Colombia. Adicionalmente, se presenta evidencia de un enfoque cuasi-experimental que reitera los anteriores resultados."

Abstract

"Colombia has experienced for over 60 years a severe internal conflict that has intensified during the last decade. Several demographic behaviors have been affected by such long and intense conflict, other than male adult mortality. In this paper, I will test whether political violence could have additional indirect effects, such as increasing infant mortality rates in Colombia during the last decade using a difference in differences model. By using demographic and violence data for the period from 1990 to 2000, which along other covariates collected at the municipality level, this paper finds that changes on the infant mortality rate has been negatively affected by changes in violence. That is political violence has increased the infant mortality rates in Colombia. In addition, I will explore a quasi-experimental approach that supports the previous findings."

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